Introduction and context
Colin Millen has produced a research paper that endeavours to compare the annual all-cause mortality rate of deaths in an attempt to promote greater advocacy for, and necessity of, vaccine efficacy and safety. The method of this analysis was conducted via the calculation of Standardised Death Rates (‘SDR’) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (‘ABS’) between January 2013 up to May 2025 and Covid-19 vaccination data, collected from the World Health Organization (‘WHO’) and Australian Federal Government data. This harnesses analysis from pre and post pandemic data in comparison with mortality during the pandemic.
Weekly all-cause death rates (SDR) are compared with an expected SDR calculated from the 7-year average of weekly SDR data from the pre-Covid19 era (2013 to 2019). The analysis calculates the weekly deviation of observed SDR from expected SDR data and compares this ratio with the weekly Covid-19 vaccination dose data to assess the impacts of vaccination on mortality trends and levels since March/April 2021. The use of weekly data offers the fine detail required to compare the number of vaccine doses administered with the all-cause mortality deviations, enabling with reasonable accuracy the identification of points of inflection and the comparison of the magnitude of the effects. In addition, Cumulative Excess Death Counts are calculated and graphed revealing trends in cumulative all-cause deaths – which you can find in the full documents linked below.
Results
The all-cause mortality data showed little deviation from the expected until 2020, where, unexpectedly, mortality dropped, rising only after around April 2021. Colin concludes that this “did NOT indicate a disease pandemic!” His analysis identifies a deviation of the observed mortality from the expected mortality with the number of vaccine doses administered on a weekly basis throughout the periods analysed. The effects of the first vaccination wave were most readily identifiable in the summer of 2021/22. The following winter of 2022 saw a spike of all-cause mortality. The following summer of 2022/23 evidenced that the effects of the vaccination programme become less observable with the drop-off in the vaccination rates subsequent to winter 2023. A further observation is that the Covid-19 attributed deaths reported in the summer spikes are closely aligned with the all-cause mortality, while the Covid-19 deaths reported in the winter spikes are more closely aligned with the seasonal patterns.
Conclusion
The deficit in All-cause mortality in 2020/21 before the introduction of the vaccines, calls into question the need for, and proportionality of the Covid-19 response in Australia.
The correlation of the deviation of the observed All-cause mortality from the expected mortality, with the Covid-19 Vaccine doses, both temporally and in magnitude, indicates a possible causal relationship. As a cautionary measure (DO NO HARM), these products should be withdrawn immediately from use pending a full rigorous investigation.
The death data currently available does NOT indicate whether the All-cause deaths are of persons who have ever received the vax or never received the vax; hence it is NOT possible to conclusively establish a causal relationship of the effects with the vax. The fact that this critical vax-status data is NOT publicly available, calls into question the transparency of data reporting and what this vax data might reveal. It is over to the health authorities and government agencies to justify the continued use of the vax with evidence of their efficacy and safety.
Documents for download
Word version:
Data (.xlsx):
