Portrait of a Pandemic (Summary)

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This article is a summary, written by Prof. Brendan Vote, of David Richard’s article Portrait of a Pandemic – the 45 Countries Study.

Executive Summary – The Effect of Mitigation Measures During the Pandemic

  • All-cause mortality is the only outcome measure that matters when assessing the ‘success or failure’ of our interventions with Australian excess deaths the worst in over 70 years (ABS data +17% 2022, p<0.05);
  • Lockdown measures did not save lives, rather caused increased deaths (50% more than Covid itself; p<0.03), accounting for 30% of excess deaths (p<0.015);
  • Poverty/poor socioeconomic status contributed to 30% of excess mortality (p<0.005);
  • Inability to access healthcare caused 20% of increased deaths (p<0.02);
  • Are Excess deaths really due to Covid-19? – (‘with’ not ‘of’ covid);
  • Vaccines have not ‘saved’ lives;
  • Spread of Covid and Covid Mortality is not predicted by R0 (reproduction number);
  • The Track and Trace Program did not stop the spread of Covid or save lives;
  • We can rely on natural (adaptive) immunity for protection during the pandemic (40% reduction in virulence, p<0.001).

Conclusion – The Crime of the Century

It is hard to escape the conclusion that every conceivable mistake was made on a truly colossal scale. However, that was not the crime, it was the complete refusal to acknowledge the failure, to accept that errors had been made and the steadfast refusal to correct those errors in the face of overwhelming evidence – that was the crime.

Doherty Institute modelling used by government seems to have been predicated on a system of beliefs about the nature of seasonal viral transmission that were lacking robust scientific evidence. Without a counter-narrative, a groupthink emerged delivering a damaging dogma that formed the justification for some of the most flagrant transgressions witnessed during the pandemic period. The near universal violation of human rights during this period by political leaders fuelled by the illusion of certitude, afforded through clumsy academic modelling demonstrates a truly staggering level of scientific ignorance and moral weakness.

Karl Popper claimed the key to good science is looking for black swans, discovering exceptions that disprove the rule. This principle is fundamental to the scientific process, for without this possibility to challenge the orthodoxy errors cannot be detected and corrections cannot be made.  Observational data that has driven MSM/Government narratives cannot be used to prove an hypothesis. Observational data can however be used to disprove assumptions as any exception disproves the hypothesis.

Quick facts – The Effect of Mitigation Measures During the Pandemic

All-cause mortality is the only outcome measure that matters when assessing the ‘success or failure’ of our interventions.

  • Our pandemic interventions failed and at no time was a cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analysis performed.

In Australia excess deaths are the worst in over 70 years (ABS data +17% 2022, p<0.05)

  • These deaths are largely in the elderly and in individuals with multiple co-morbidities. After almost 3 years of lockdowns, mass vaccinations, the flagrant violation of human rights in the name of public safety, unprecedented levels of debt and government borrowing, the social and economic devastation inflicted on communities across Australia and the deprivation of our children to a decent education, the upward trajectory of the pandemic remains unchanged. 
  • The Australian pandemic response has been an unmitigated failure and national disaster, with repercussions to our economy and the health of Australians that will last for decades. 

Lockdown measures did not save lives, rather caused increased deaths (50% more than Covid itself; p<0.03 in the 1st year of the Pandemic)

  • Lockdowns account for roughly 20% of excess deaths (p<0.015).

Poverty/poor socioeconomic status contributed to excess mortality

  • Poverty rates more than doubled through the pandemic (100 million more globally entered poverty) and continue to rise from inflation consequences of the pandemic response.
  • Poverty accounts for about 30% of excess deaths globally (p<0.005).

Inability to access healthcare caused increased deaths

  • 20% of excess deaths are attributable to lack of access to healthcare (p<0.02).

Excess deaths are due to Covid-19?

  • Officially 60% of excess deaths could be attributed to covid either directly or indirectly however if the community covid rate is the same as covid death rate then it is ‘with covid’ rather than ‘from covid’ – pull forward effect (the average age at covid death exceeded historical life expectancy in many countries including Australia).
  • Despite all the lockdowns, the cost to the global economy, the human toll from the government interventions and the mass vaccination programs, none of it has had any impact on the trajectory of the disease – the pandemic response was an unmitigated and complete failure.
  • Nothing works as well as our interventions – so choose nothing! Don’t just do something, stand there! we don’t have enough information to decide or act (OODA – observe, orient, decide, act)

Vaccines have not ‘saved’ lives

  • There now seems widespread acceptance that vaccine-related deaths are occurring but not enough to statistically influence all-cause mortality.
  • Covid vaccination has no effect on overall mortality (p = 0.565; not statistically significant).
  • Vaccination is actually increasing spread of the virus (p<0.001) and does not reduce transmission.
  • Receiving a vaccination will likely increase the risk of contracting Covid by approximately 8%. 
  • According to official statements the vaccination protects against severe disease and death, whilst perhaps reducing transmissibility albeit being somewhat ‘leaky’. Even if all-cause mortality is unaffected, the vaccine still offers benefits against Covid infection, especially to the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities.
  • However, even looking specifically at covid deaths (i.e. ‘steelman’ assumption) Vaccination is not demonstrating any benefit in respect of saving lives (p = 0.283)

Spread of Covid and Covid mortality is not predicted by R0 (reproduction number)

  • The 1920’s SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) was used as the basis for modelling and prediction throughout the pandemic period to justify the stringency of the lockdowns and the vaccination targets to halt the spread of the infection.
  • In fact, the outcomes are completely contrary to the model prediction – Examination of the subsequent infection rates at 6 months and 12 months after the Doherty Model was delivered demonstrates no correlation between R0 values at a given point in time and subsequent outcome in cases, Covid mortality and excess mortality. 

The Track and Trace Program did not Stop the Spread of Covid or Save Lives

  • Although nosocomial infection was a major contributor to the spread of infection.

We can rely on natural (adaptive) immunity for protection during the pandemic

  • Community exposure and natural (adaptive) immunity has a substantial role to play in both individual and community protection during a pandemic (40% reduction in virulence; p <0.001).
  • In fact, lockdown measures likely interfered with mutually beneficial ‘Co-adaptation (or co-evolution), the parallel feedback process by which agents continuously adapt to the changes induced by the adaptive actions of other agents, from eco-systems to economies.’

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Authors

  • Prof Brendan Vote
  • Dr David Richards

    Dr David Richards is an Australian General Practitioner and Adjunct Professor at an Australian University in the faculty of medicine. He graduated from London University in 1984, having also completed an Honours Degree in Human Genetics and Immunology. He has peer reviewed papers for a major European Journal and presented at International Conferences on Genetics and Carotid Ultrasound.

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